Fair efficacy formula - formal test results

Testing Results

Below is a list of the Protocols we have tested formally, or who have independently tested using our Fair Efficacy Measure.

Note: The theoretical max efficacy in the UK given our phone mix, and perfect radio conditions, is 76.39%.

The Ferretti et al paper [6] shows a ‘same day’ efficacy requirement of 30%, with an error range between 10 and 57%. This assumes a 90% effective lockdown of ill people. Thus in our paper we call:-

  • 57%+ ‘Very effective’
  • 30%+ ‘Effective’
  • 10%+ ‘Limited effectiveness’
  • Less than 10% ‘not effective’

See the Fair Efficacy Paper page for details on how these values are defined and derived in testing.

Protocol Latest results Test reports
Herald Test App
(Herald Protocol)
(Tolerates 1 of 2 phones without advertising)
Efficacy: 41.37%
(Effective)

Pspec^2: 48.71%
Detection: 100%
Continuity: 99.991%
Completeness: 98.36%
Accuracy: 95.95%
Dev team tests:
v1.1 Release: 2020-11-28
v1.2.0-beta2 in development: 2020-12-08
See the bottom of this page for historical Herald results.
Theoretical UK Max
(UK phone mix)
Max Efficacy: 46.57%
(Effective)

Pspec^2: 51.75%
Detection: 100%
Continuity: 100%
Completeness: 100%
Accuracy: 100%
Dev team tests: N/A (Simulation)
Independent tests: N/A (Simulation)
Simulation: 2020-08-31 Simulations (ODS)
5-minute annealed, exact RSSI
(Theoretical, simulated)
(Requires BLe Advertising)
Efficacy: 4.46%
(Not effective)

Pspec^2: 24.67%
Detection: 100%
Continuity: 20.93%
Completeness: 95.87%
Accuracy: 100%
Dev team tests: N/A (Simulation)
Independent tests: N/A (Simulation)
Simulation: 2020-08-31 Simulations (ODS)
5-minute annealed, bucketed RSSI
(Theoretical, simulated)
(Requires BLe Advertising)
Efficacy: 3.49%
(Not effective)

Pspec^2: 24.67%
Detection: 100%
Continuity: 20.93%
Completeness: 75.18%
Accuracy: 100%
Dev team tests: N/A (Simulation)
Independent tests: N/A (Simulation)
Simulation: 2020-08-31 Simulations (ODS)
2-minute exact, exact RSSI
(Theoretical, simulated)
(Requires BLe Advertising)
Efficacy: 5.56%
(Not effective)

Pspec^2: 24.67%
Detection: 100%
Continuity: 25.58%
Completeness: 97.81%
Accuracy: 100%
Dev team tests: N/A (Simulation)
Independent tests: N/A (Simulation)
Simulation: 2020-08-31 Simulations (ODS)
Your Protocol here! Efficacy: ?
Detection: ?
Continuity: ?
Completeness: ?
Accuracy: ?
If you have used our Fair Efficacy Formula for details

Herald historical results

You can read all past Herald results on the Herald Historical Results page.

Getting Started

To help you get started, see the documentation.